Relates to another problem I like: given k such serial numbers sampled uniformly from 1 through N, what is the most efficient way to estimate N?
(Tempting answer: “double the average of your data.” This is an unbiased estimator, but a fairly high-variance once; you can do better by just taking the largest number you’ve seen so far, and multiplying by (k+1)/k.)
Well, these are all very *bad* estimates in the sense that they take no information about the phenomenon itself into account… but if you *have* no such information, these are perfectly good estimates!
Here’s one that is somewhat relevant at the moment: When will the USA collapse? (Currently existing since 1776) The 80% Answer: Between 2053 and 4266. We have some time.
Macie tak czasem, że nic wam nie idzie? U mnie ostatnio pasmo porażek, nawet mandat we Wrocławiu dostałem za parkowanie. Chciałem się jakoś odegrać na losie i kumpel z pracy pokazał mi, gdzie gra. Wszedłem na spinmama z nastawieniem „raz kozie śmierć”. Początek był tragiczny, myślałem, że znowu wtopa, ale przy stoliku best poker los się odwrócił. Wygrałem kilka rozdań z rzędu i humor mi się poprawił natychmiast. Mandat spłacony, a ja mam nową odskocznię od codziennych problemów.
It’s interesting how our brains constantly try to optimize the journey, not just the destination. That same instinct shows up in unexpected places too, even in quick, engaging challenges like Veck IO, where progress feels measurable and every small step forward keeps you asking the same question in a more playful way.
37 movies is just the beginning? If the MCU really extends for hundreds more episodes, fans will have plenty to look forward to. Personally, when waiting for new movies or during my free time between seasons, I often practice my driving skills with the game drift boss. It hones my reflexes like Iron Man and is an effective stress reliever to prepare me for the upcoming multiverse battles.
A closely related problem is: given the serial numbers of several captured tanks, how many tanks might the enemy have?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem
(This is why serial numbers, especially those of military equipment, usually aren’t really _serial_ anymore.)
Oh yes, I love this one!
Relates to another problem I like: given k such serial numbers sampled uniformly from 1 through N, what is the most efficient way to estimate N?
(Tempting answer: “double the average of your data.” This is an unbiased estimator, but a fairly high-variance once; you can do better by just taking the largest number you’ve seen so far, and multiplying by (k+1)/k.)
😂😂
I was thinking that these are true … except if the process has an exponential lifetime. Right?
Well, these are all very *bad* estimates in the sense that they take no information about the phenomenon itself into account… but if you *have* no such information, these are perfectly good estimates!
Really enjoyed this post! The insights into estimating journey progress feel delightfully relatable—and surprisingly mathematical.
Here’s one that is somewhat relevant at the moment: When will the USA collapse? (Currently existing since 1776) The 80% Answer: Between 2053 and 4266. We have some time.
Macie tak czasem, że nic wam nie idzie? U mnie ostatnio pasmo porażek, nawet mandat we Wrocławiu dostałem za parkowanie. Chciałem się jakoś odegrać na losie i kumpel z pracy pokazał mi, gdzie gra. Wszedłem na spinmama z nastawieniem „raz kozie śmierć”. Początek był tragiczny, myślałem, że znowu wtopa, ale przy stoliku best poker los się odwrócił. Wygrałem kilka rozdań z rzędu i humor mi się poprawił natychmiast. Mandat spłacony, a ja mam nową odskocznię od codziennych problemów.
It’s interesting how our brains constantly try to optimize the journey, not just the destination. That same instinct shows up in unexpected places too, even in quick, engaging challenges like Veck IO, where progress feels measurable and every small step forward keeps you asking the same question in a more playful way.
37 movies is just the beginning? If the MCU really extends for hundreds more episodes, fans will have plenty to look forward to. Personally, when waiting for new movies or during my free time between seasons, I often practice my driving skills with the game drift boss. It hones my reflexes like Iron Man and is an effective stress reliever to prepare me for the upcoming multiverse battles.